In response to recent loss of an aircraft over Iraq, Western authorities leaded by USA expressed several provocative thoughts about potential measures against Iraq if it doesn't resume subordinating to West. Iraq is again blamed for everything.
The following is a series of articles supplied by Reuters to show the seriousness of situtation.
By Paul Taylor, Diplomatic Editor
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Prospects of a military clash
between Iraq and United States are growing in the run-up to the
U.S. presidential election, diplomats say, but the Clinton
administration is sure to weigh the political risks carefully.
U.S., British and Kuwaiti officials say the Iraqi air force
has been flying provocative missions in the last two weeks to
challenge Western-imposed no-fly zones over northern and
southern Iraq. One jet violated Saudi airspace, they said.
Baghdad has revived old accusations that Kuwait is stealing
its oil and threatened to take unspecified measures against the
neighbor in invaded in 1990, sparking the 1991 Gulf War.
The Iraqi air force had recently fired a new air-to-air
missile in an exercise, showing an upgraded capability to
threaten U.S. and British planes patrolling the no-fly zones,
which Iraq does not recognize, one source said.
``The West has been holding back so far, but if this pattern
of provocation continues, I'd be very surprised if we get
through the next few weeks without some serious military
action,'' a senior Western diplomat said.
Such action would likely involve major U.S. and British air
strikes on Iraqi air bases, he said.
In Washington, White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said the
United States was deeply committed to stopping Saddam
threatening his neighbors or rebuilding his weapons of mass
destruction.
``He has had times where he's miscalculated. But he should
not miscalculate our resolve,'' he told reporters Friday.
Saddam Seen Exploiting U.S. Campaign
Western officials believe President Saddam Hussein, true to
past form, will exploit the sensitive U.S. campaign season to
dramatize Iraq's opposition to U.N. economic sanctions and try
to embarrass President Clinton (
search.news.yahoo.com/search/news?p=President%20Clinton&c=&n=10&yn=c -
web sites).
They said the White House had discussed plans for a range
of eventualities, including Iraqi military action against the
Kurds, an attack on Western aircraft or on Kuwait, and the risk
that Saddam might play with oil exports to send world prices
through the roof before the Nov. 7 U.S. vote.
Among Iraq's current tactics are an attempt to break a
decade-old civil aviation boycott by starting civilian flights
from Russia and trying to bring in a planeload of anti-
sanctions activists from France.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright warned Iraq on
Thursday that Washington stood ready to take military action if
Baghdad threatened its neighbors.
``We do have a credible force in the region and are prepared
to use it in an appropriate way at a time of our choosing,''
Albright told a news conference.
Diplomats said she discussed possible Iraqi actions that
might prompt a military response with Foreign Secretary Robin
Cook of Britain, Washington's closest ally on Iraq, on the
sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week.
Albright was also due to meet Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince
Abdullah in New York Friday night as fears of a U.S.-Iraqi
confrontation helped push oil prices close to 10-year highs.
Diplomats said Washington would look to Riyadh, the world's
biggest oil producer, to use its spare capacity to boost crude
production if Iraq's 2.3 million barrels a day in exports were
taken off the market.
RELUCTANT WARRIORS?
Sources familiar with U.S. thinking said the administration
was reluctant to be drawn into a clash, and while U.S. forces
in the Gulf had been placed on higher alert, commanders had
been instructed not to over-react to minor transgressions.
A Pentagon spokesman said there had been no appreciable
increase or decrease in U.S. forces in the region in the last
six months to a year and stressed they had seen no Iraqi troop
or equipment movement unusual for this time of year.
Anthony Cordesman, a respected Middle East expert at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington,
said there was a real risk of ``an October surprise.''
``Nobody is gung-ho, but certainly there has been increasing
readiness and they have seriously considered the options to
escalate if Saddam escalates,'' he said.
The United States would not initiate action in response to
the Saudi air incursion or verbal threats, but any sign of a
serious Iraqi military initiative against Kuwait would draw a
massive and swift air response, he said.
Experts said the domestic political impact was a major
factor in the administration's calculations about Iraq.
The risk was that any military action would merely remind
voters that a defiant Saddam is still in power, making the
Clinton administration look ineffectual and rubbing off on Vice
President Al Gore (
search.news.yahoo.com/search/news?p=Al%20Gore&c=&n=10&yn=c -
web sites), the Democratic candidate.
Reminder Of Failures
``It would be a reminder of the failures of the Clinton
administration over eight years,'' said Philip Gordon, a White
House National Security Council official until last year.
``It would be classic Saddam to try to take his revenge in
the last two months of this administration by embarrassing the
president and taking advantage of our unwillingness to act,''
said Gordon, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
He said the administration did not want to have to bomb
Iraq again, but there was a broad public consensus on the need
to be tough with Saddam.
``The question is how much of a provocation we would need to
see before we act,'' he said.
Republican candidate George W. Bush (
search.news.yahoo.com/search/news?p=George%20W.%20Bush&c=&n=10&yn=c -
web sites)'s ability to use any
incident with Iraq against Gore was limited by the fact that it
was his father, ex-president George Bush, who left Saddam in
power at the end of the Gulf War, Gordon said.
Diplomats said Washington would not need to reinforce its
forces in the Gulf region to take military action.
The U.S. military has just under 200 aircraft, including
helicopters, and about 20,000 personnel in the area, including
the George Washington aircraft carrier battle group.
(additional reporting by David Storey and Tabassum Zakaria in
Washington)
Copyright REUTERS (
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