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A380 Set for First Flight
By Pierre Sparaco
02/12/2005 07:00:49 PM
LONG-DISTANCE GAMBIT
The A380 is poised to make its first flight in the next two months. While the Europeans prepare to celebrate the milestone, the long-lasting ideological battle between Boeing and Airbus on the merits of ultrahigh-capacity aircraft is reaching new heights.
Since program go-ahead four years ago, Airbus has secured 154 orders, exclusive of an estimated 50-plus options. The mega-transport's backlog significantly exceeds expectations at this early stage of production, says Airbus Chief Executive Noel Forgeard.
In recent months, EADS managers have stressed repeatedly that the A380's business case is intentionally conservative: The program should achieve profitability with the 250th delivery. And by the end of the current decade, production should reach four aircraft per month. EADS owns an 80% stake in Airbus; the remaining 20% is in BAE Systems' portfolio.
Top European industry executives acknowledge that unfavorable exchange rates stemming from the weak U.S. dollar and the euro's appreciation could threaten profitability. However, about 50% of the A380's content is dollar-denominated, a share that should increase further over the years, since Airbus' purchasing policy is to buy in dollars nearly everywhere in the world. The main A380 suppliers include Fairchild Controls, Goodrich, Hamilton Sundstrand, Honeywell, Parker, Rockwell Collins and TRW Aeronautical Systems.
Looking beyond the target breakeven point, Airbus executives believe the A380's potential market is large enough to sustain the $12-billion program's quest for profitability. Boeing counters that, more than ever, travelers want nonstop service to final destinations.
The Seattle manufacturer's forecast claims that air travel growth will be met mostly by direct flights as well as increased frequencies. The Toulouse-based airframer responds that global urbanization is stronger than ever and will support hub-to-hub growth. Laurent Rouaud, Airbus' vice president of market forecast and research, points out that the bulk of air travel is spurred by population clusters.
Echoing a recent Franco-American political dispute, Rouaud adds that Boeing's approach is "simplistic." He says price remains the leisure-travel passenger's first criterion, well ahead of schedule convenience. According to a U.S. Commerce Dept. survey, complemented by CIC Research quoted by Rouaud, high-yield passengers traveling in either business or first class behave differently. For them, faithfulness to a frequent-flier program comes first, followed by fares, loyalty to a specific carrier, convenient flight schedules and safety reputation and previous good experiences, while the availability of nonstop services comes seventh.
In contrast, Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes' vice president of marketing, believes firmly in traffic fragmentation.
For example, he analyzed routes between the U.S. and Paris to demonstrate that nonstop services are proliferating successfully. Since 1980, the overall number of city pairs was multiplied by 2.5 and frequencies increased nearly five-fold, while average aircraft size decreased slightly. The 767 helped to fragment North Atlantic traffic, the 777 accomplished a similar move in the North Pacific market, and this trend could remain a strong economic reality.
However, if air transportation continues to grow by an annual average of 5.1-5.3% in the next 20 years and beyond, both theories--consolidation and fragmentation--could well prove to be right and complementary. Such a "compromising" vision of the future seems to be taking shape in Toulouse, but the rival manufacturers' predictions are not expected to be reconciled anytime soon.
Not unexpectedly, Airbus' and Boeing's global market forecasts are characterized by nearly identical bottom lines. The Europeans predict that 17,328 100-seat-plus commercial transports will enter service in the next 20 years, including freighters. Boeing's estimates are closer to 20,000 aircraft (after deducting smaller regional jets included in its survey). In business terms, both say the aircraft's combined value will be as much as $1.9 trillion.
That's where the principal agreement ends. Airbus maintains that during the next two decades the world's airlines will take delivery of 1,648 "large aircraft" valued at roughly $416 billion, at current economic conditions. By 2023, Rouaud says, 44 airlines can be expected to operate nearly 1,300 mega-transports equipped with an average 572 seats. Half of the operators will be based in the Pacific Rim, seeming to confirm "concentrated" demand.
Adds Rouaud: "By 2023, 12 of the 20 largest airports will be in the Asia-Pacific region, and 75% of the world's fleet of 500-seat-plus commercial transports will be based at these 12 airports--London Heathrow and Tokyo Narita being at the top of the list." However, for Rouaud's prediction to materialize, British Airways, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways would have to commit to mega-transports.
Airbus executives are convinced the A380 will evolve into a highly profitable program, but they're not seeking market supremacy. Notes Rouaud: "With the 747, Boeing long had the biggest aircraft; we would be very surprised if they were to do nothing, in a duopoly context." He was referring to the envisioned 747 Advanced, set to incorporate 787 technology. It would reportedly have 10% more capacity than the 747-400 and 5% lower direct operating costs.
In the past several months, Airbus sales executives frequently cited China as they outlined their views on emerging markets while aiming to bolster airlines' convictions vis-a-vis the A380's business plan. China's personal disposable income is growing at an annual average of 15.2% and expenditure on transportation increased five-fold in the last 15 years. The pace of international travel also is accelerating, based on an expanding list of politically approved destinations. It's noteworthy that the bulk of Chinese air travel is generated by population concentrations that lead to a hub-dominated route system.
Similarly, Airbus' economists rely on United Nations statistics and a Thomas Brinkhoff study to stress that the number of cities with a population of more than 20 million is growing.
The decision by China Southern Airlines Co. (CSA) to acquire five A380s is expected to reinforce the Europeans' viewpoint. However, China is simultaneously buying 60 "middle-of-the-market" Boeing 787s, in another indication that consolidation and fragmentation will coexist (AW&ST Jan. 31, p. 34). CSA is scheduled to take delivery of its initial A380s in the fourth quarter of 2007, in time for a traffic peak tied to the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing. All five aircraft will be in service by 2010, when the World Expo opens its doors in Shanghai and for Guangzhou's Asian Games.
Another commercial controversy is expected to spring from Airbus' goal to sell significant numbers of all-cargo A380Fs. The freighter, which should enter service in mid-2008, will carry up to 150 metric tons and have a maximum range of 5,600 naut. mi. FedEx will become the first A380F operator in August 2008, between North American and Pacific Rim hubs.
In the next few weeks, flight trials will momentarily bring the aviation community's attention back to technical issues. Airbus is preparing for the mega-transport's flight test program, which is scheduled to lead to European Air Safety Agency/FAA certification in the second quarter of next year.
MSN01 has nearly completed ground tests and is to be handed over shortly to the company's flight test department.
To date, Airbus has assembled four A380s. Late last year, MSN01 remained in the final assembly building to complete hydraulic and electric system tests, as well as landing gear evaluations. They were followed by flight control, fuel system and pressurization tests. MSN02 is now undergoing vibration tests.
Late last month, wings for the fifth aircraft--Singapore's first A380--were delivered to the Toulouse final assembly line, while fuselage barrels are to be conveyed to Toulouse in the next few days.
According to Airbus executives, difficulties encountered during development--including the airframe's excess weight--have been resolved. "We had ambitious goals, beyond what is necessary. Today, we are within 1% of the targeted maximum takeoff weight, and the aircraft will easily deliver guaranteed performance," Forgeard said last month. "The weight issue is over, period."
Although the company isn't discussing modifications resulting from a wide-ranging weight-reduction plan, it has been confirmed that changes include a refined wing geometry, modified wing/airframe fairing and engine installation. A significant amount of structural weight was cut without drag penalty, says Robert Lafontan, senior vice president of engineering.
In addition, program executives and customer airlines provided other relevant updates on the A380's status:
*Early operators. Singapore Airlines will be the first A380 operator. It will take delivery of the first four production aircraft in 2006, powered by Rolls-Royce Trent 900 turbofans. London and Sidney will be the first destinations; the aircraft will be equipped "with less than 500 seats in three-class configuration." In 2007, Air France will become the mega-transport's first European operator, in a 538-seat configuration. New York, Montreal, Tokyo and Beijing will be the French carrier's initial destinations. Air France's aircraft will be powered by Engine Alliance GP7200s.
*Pilot training. Although the A380 is equipped with larger, interactive displays and provides the flight crew with additional information, such as vertical situational awareness, its cockpit basically retains an A330/ A340-like flight deck to facilitate Cross Crew Qualification (CCQ). Managers of Airbus Training, the manufacturer's flight crew training arm, are targeting a 9-11-day transition to the A380. They note that most launch customers envision CCQ operations. For example, Emirates, Singapore, Lufthansa German Airlines and Virgin Atlantic Airways plan A340/A380 CCQ. Similarly, Air France, Qatar Airways and Qantas plan A330/A380 CCQ.
*Environmental issues. Program executives say the A380, powered either by Trent 900s or GP7200s, will be "considerably quieter than the 747-400" (by an estimated 3 dB.) and below noise ceilings specified by the International Civil Aviation Organization's proposed Chapter 4. Similarly, it will be compliant with London Heathrow's QC2 takeoff noise limit.
*Emergency evacuation. To comply with ICAO's 90-sec. passenger evacuation requirement, the A380 will have eight slides and rafts on each side of the fuselage. Deployment will be possible in "worst wind conditions."