Flame and holywar about special operation in Ukraine

Bredonosec>>> Propose to react accordingly, as to ordinary political spamer.
westerninfo>> No. I am not conversor. I came here to ask You if these 2 news are fake or real?
Bredonosec> Stop lying. you said in straight words, u're here "to open eyes of those russians"
Bredonosec> Fuck off with polit/spam.

Yes I said, because I fear you run into collapse. I don't want a super weak Russia, I said why I not want it. I am not conversor.

I ask you: have you hear about these 2 news from Russian sources or it's only in Western media?

westerninfo> Yes I said, because
because you're lier.

westerninfo> You know, that in the history Russians invaded Hungary in 1849, 1945 and 1956. So we are not friends.

That's great, but are you sure that you really want to call what happened in 1945 an invasion of Hungary? As far as I recall - your soldiers managed to go pretty deep into USSR before that, without really being invited. Crying about foreign invaders after that is a little silly, even for inhabitants of the "butthurt belt".

westerninfo>> You know, that in the history Russians invaded Hungary in 1849, 1945 and 1956. So we are not friends.
IDiO> That's great, but are you sure that you really want to call what happened in 1945 an invasion of Hungary? As far as I recall - your soldiers managed to go pretty deep into USSR before that, without really being invited. Crying about foreign invaders after that is a little silly, even for inhabitants of the "butthurt belt".

(In 1941 we tried to fix the unjustice of trianon treaty - when Hungary was divided in 7 parts - with another injustice. Unjustice toward USSR. We failed. You defended your country. It's correct.
Beating down our 2 revolutions was not correct.)

I come here with friendship, i did not want to go deep in history. But unfortunately i met only misunderstanding. I think Russia can collapse and I think it's an event which need to avoid.

westerninfo> I come here with friendship, i did not want to go deep in history. But unfortunately i met only misunderstanding. I think Russia can collapse and I think it's an event which need to avoid.

Perhaps "friendship" is not the best notion. I come here with clear intentions: I think Russia can collapse and I think it could be bad for Hungary, so this event need to be avoided.

westerninfo> I think Russia can collapse and I think it could be bad for Hungary, so this event need to be avoided.

OK. To cut a long story short just tell us how that event can be avoided.

westerninfo> I come here with friendship, i did not want to go deep in history. But unfortunately i met only misunderstanding. I think Russia can collapse and I think it's an event which need to avoid.

You can sleep easy. Russia isn't collapsing in any foreseeable future. I'm not saying it never will - everything is possible, and the political system there is inherently unpredictable, but this particular event and its aftermath will undoubtedly strengthen the current government there. Russian population has a tendency to close ranks when faced with hostility from foreigners and the pro-western opinion leaders are almost universally gone now, leaving over the past month.

If that's the only thing you're genuinely concerned about - feel free to relax.

westerninfo> 1. Russia finished the 1st phase of his operations in Ukraine and his army will concentrate to Donbass
westerninfo> 2. Medvedev said in a statement, that the whole Ukraine thing was the idea of Putin and Medvedev said at the start that it is madness

1 - yes. Why?

2 - no.

westerninfo> The problem that there is war propaganda in Ukraine, in the West and in Russia also. Here - I mean in the West - media says Ukraine will win in a few days.
westerninfo> Russia says everything goes on it's way.

It's a typical wartime chest puffing. Propaganda aside - do you think Ukraine has a chance?

(Limit of posts again. I couldn't post. Please unblock the limit.)
westerninfo>> Yes I said, because
Bredonosec> because you're lier.

I don't know why You are so unfriendly with me. Hungary is the last country in Europe who appreciates somehow - in these war conditions - the relationships between Hungary and Russia. Hungary don't give way to weapons flowing from the West. In these days Hungary prohibits weapon transfer. You don't know how great pressure on our prime minister, Orban Viktor to give way to weapon transfer. And he says no to weapon transfer, only humanitarian aid.

Russian indepence was an example for us, that a country can be independent if he has good relationships with a great independent country like Russia. And we built some indepence in the last 12 years and Russia helped this.

Meanwhile we know, there were lethal points in the history when we had conflict with Russia.
We are in a contradiction: We see how Russia developed in the past 20 years, and Russians were friendly with us in the past years, we could be more independent. But we also see how Ukraine fights - like a revolution in Hungary, or something similar.

westerninfo>> 1. Russia finished the 1st phase of his operations in Ukraine and his army will concentrate to Donbass
westerninfo>> 2. Medvedev said in a statement, that the whole Ukraine thing was the idea of Putin and Medvedev said at the start that it is madness
s.P.> 1 - yes. Why?
s.P.> 2 - no.

I try to compare what the propaganda says in the West, and what in Russia.

---

I would ask an email of HT or Agressor or even You, st_Paulus. (Because You all have Russian flag)
I would send my worst-case scenario that was written 23 days before, because I see things going in the worst direction, and what i wrote it is realising step by step. Perhaps You laugh at my stupidities, perhaps You say it's rational, it can be a very bad result for everybody. If You say it's rational, perhaps You can make something.

westerninfo> because I see things going in the worst direction
so you think you see the actual picture?



Anyway, what do you want from us? We are not the Russian government, we do not make decisions at the state level. What is your goal?

westerninfo>> because I see things going in the worst direction
trainer> so you think you see the actual picture?
trainer> Anyway, what do you want from us? We are not the Russian government, we do not make decisions at the state level. What is your goal?

We talk here in the last 2-3 days. You see perhaps a little bit how I see things, etc. If You read my scenario and You think there is logic in it, perhaps You can send it to higher levels. Everybody has a friend at higher level. An information estimated by a friend has much more value than an information read somewhere on the net. It could reach a mega-rich or a general or somebody very high. And perhaps he agrees with me that things can go very bad for Ukraine, Europe, the whole world (and also for Hungary). And also for Russia, of course.

As I wrote, I try to foresee economic events because I sell and buy shares. And - as a side effect - sometimes I see political events also. (An example: in 2001 I saw that our PM Medgyessi Peter was an intelligent agent in the 1970's. 2 days after I saw it, Roumanian intelligence agency leaked this info.)
If I send my scenario to the email of the Russian government, they throw it away, they will say it's a stupid spam, because I work only with probabilities, not certainties, and also with some logic.

westerninfo> (Limit of posts again. I couldn't post. Please unblock the limit.)
to increase your spam capabilities? )) Do we need it? )) Really?))

westerninfo>>> Yes I said, because
Bredonosec>> because you're lier.
westerninfo> I don't know why You are so unfriendly with me
Why shouldn't i? Do i need your retranslation of same propahanda shit, that i can hear from local media? Spamer with megalomania?

>Hungary is the last country in Europe who appreciates somehow
her interest in taking Karpaty region.
And you are not the country.

>Orban Viktor to give way to weapon transfer. And he says no to weapon transfer, only humanitarian aid.
oh, yeah, your government gives a bit less support to enemy forces, and than should be enough reason for us to listen all that propahanda shit about "agression" and "you should give up, pay and repent"
Get lost.

westerninfo> Russian indepence was an example for us, that a country can be independent if he has good relationships with a great independent country like Russia. And we built some indepence in the last 12 years and Russia helped this.
Maybe for you it looks like independence, but from outside it does not.

westerninfo> We are in a contradiction: We see how Russia developed in the past 20 years, and Russians were friendly with us in the past years, we could be more independent. But we also
but you also act against that russia, whose help appreciated.
Cool gratitude.

westerninfo>>> Beating down our 2 revolutions was not correct.)
why do you think that is wrong?
why is suppressing a revolt against a legitimate government wrong?
do you think the suppression of other revolutions is also wrong?

westerninfo> I try to compare what the propaganda says in the West, and what in Russia.
I mean - why are you asking about this particular quote? It belongs to one the Donbass militia commanders.


westerninfo> I would ask an email of HT or Agressor or even You, st_Paulus. (Because You all have Russian flag)
westerninfo> I would send my worst-case scenario that was written 23 days before, because I see things going in the worst direction, and what i wrote it is realising step by step. Perhaps You laugh at my stupidities, perhaps You say it's rational, it can be a very bad result for everybody. If You say it's rational, perhaps You can make something.

I'm sorry, but I don't think it makes any sense.

No one belonging to the chain of command would listen. I don't believe in such forecasts either.

Why do you need a email BTW? If you're willing to share your thoughts - why don't you post it here?
Nothing would stop us from posting you emails anyway.

It looks... fishy.

westerninfo> 1. Russia finished the 1st phase of his operations in Ukraine and his army will concentrate to Donbass
westerninfo> 2. Medvedev said in a statement, that the whole Ukraine thing was the idea of Putin and Medvedev said at the start that it is madness
westerninfo> Really they said such things? In Russian sources it's difficult to find something (for me).

No. It's bullshit. Medvedev didn't say it. He gave big interview at 24.03.2022. Here is at russian language.

This interview banned in Western. You can't search this interview full version at youtube. Why western propaganda conceal real Medvedev's statements? Just to lie about Medvedev and his fake Putin conflict to you.

westerninfo> I don't know why You are so unfriendly with me

Could Berlin jude be frendly with german at 1940s?
This is new clip of popular russian underground group. This is not propaganda. This guys roasted russian goverment many a time. Switch on english subtitres. This is how Russians perceive Europe now.

Here is english reportage about russian soldiers in Ukraine

westerninfo> I would ask an email of HT or Agressor or even You, st_Paulus. (Because You all have Russian flag)
westerninfo> I would send my worst-case scenario that was written 23 days before

What stops you from sharing your "scenario" here, on the forum?

s.P.> I'm sorry, but I don't think it makes any sense.
s.P.> No one belonging to the chain of command would listen. I don't believe in such forecasts either.
s.P.> Why do you need a email BTW? If you're willing to share your thoughts - why don't you post it here?
s.P.> Nothing would stop us from posting you emails anyway.

If I post it here, You will criticise it word by word. And it can be criticised, because it's about probabilities, not certainties - but it realises slowly as I see. If I send in email, you can calmly think about the whole thing. After it's your responsability to post here and make others to criticise it word by word, letter by letter. But just after it's on the net, public, it will be only one version of reality among thousands...
I hope if somebody calmly read my worst-case scenario as a whole thing, he can see there could be some (or more) predictive power. Of course my reader must be honest and not to think i am an enemy. (For example Bredonosec would criticise it letter by letter, not to think about it, not to evaluate it as a whole thing. When we talk in forums, lot of people select one sentence from the post of other people and he criticise this selected sentence without the context - it's useless. Yes I make such things also.) And my reader can have a friend in the state structure, an officer. This officer can take it more seriously, because he received my scenario from his friend. And this officer can send it to his friend, a lieutenant. Lieutenant can send it to his friend, a colonel. Colonel can send it to his friend, a general. Step by step it can reach somebody in the highest level. A scenario or information which reached the highest state level in russia - from the INSIDE. It's not important it goes to higher levels in the state structure or in the army structure or in the wealth structure (rich man - millionaire - billionaire - oligarch - highest state level.
As I see even Emmanuel Macron or Erdogan or any other foreign Prime Minister has not too much influence on Russian state decisions, and things can escalate to much. They try things from the OUTSIDE. Perhaps a scenario or information from the INSIDE can deescalate things and reduce radically the chance of very-very great stupidities to happen.

s.P.> I don't believe in such forecasts either.

I forgot to answer this.
I try to foresee economic events at a daily basis I can say, i made it in the last 4 years regularly. Occasionally since 2000. And yes, there are not certainties, but only probabilities. 20%. 50%. Sometimes 70-80%. Sometimes i see political events to come: only probabilities of course, alternatives.

Just think about one thing. In our country NOBODY said Russia will go in Ukraine. Not my friends, not my acquaintances, not the business forums, nobody. But I saw at 21 february it can be something with a fairly high probability, and the 23 february the probability reached such a high level, that I needed to act: change my forint to other currency. (Other thing: political events are more difficult to foresee than economical events. And it's also difficult to see economical events... For me.)

So perhaps what I see can have some predictive power. Not sure, not certainly but probably.
If something goes public, the predictive power is finished, i could see it in the past years several times. There are rare exeptions, but generally if it's public, actors, players, decision makers will find another way to make what they want. That's why i not post my worst-case scenario here - if public, it will loose predictive power, decision makers will find another way to reach their goals, perhaps worse methods, worse consequencies. That's why I hope my reader will be honest and if he thinks there can be reality in my scenario, he will not make it public - instead he will send it to his friend who is at a little bit higher position.

U235> Here is english reportage about russian soldiers in Ukraine
U235> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fOsIY9ioQQ

I watch the things you linked, exept Medvedyev, he speaks russian.

westerninfo>>>> Beating down our 2 revolutions was not correct.)
ждан72> why do you think that is wrong?
ждан72> why is suppressing a revolt against a legitimate government wrong?
ждан72> do you think the suppression of other revolutions is also wrong?

It's tyranny when you say an opressed nation has no right to take down his opressor. Much, Hungary was an independent nation since 892. Revolutions were against opressors. (Officialy 895, some historians say now it was 2-3 years before official date.)

westerninfo> I forgot to answer this.

Last century united Europe has killed 30 millions of our people

This is your approach, your world, to destroy Russia, for centures

We disagree

And most of the world, in area, population and and economy as well

US is a cancer of civilisation

Unless civilisation will cope the disease civilisation will disappear

westerninfo> It's tyranny when you say an op

do Russians in Ukraine have the right to overthrow the Ukrainians?
did you personally support Donetsk in its struggle against Ukrainian fascists?
Do you support the right of Catalonia to fight against Spain and do you talk about it in your country?
in 1956 Hungary was free and independent, why do you call the anti-state fascist revolt of murderers and terrorists a "revolution"?