из International Herald Tribune
кратко: в Давосе, Китай обсуждали на 250 форумах и конференциях--не включая тех, которые были посвящены Азии вообще.
Россию обсуждали на 2х форумах, и то "в числе прочего". В общем, на Россию все плюнули.
Once a hot topic, Russia as an investment is now out in the cold
By Katrin Bennhold International Herald Tribune Saturday, January 29, 2005
DAVOS, Switzerland Two years ago, Russia was still mentioned in the same breath with China and India as one of the world's most promising developing economies.
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Today its internal troubles increasingly risk pushing it off investors' radar screens, and it has a limited window of opportunity to get itself back on track, according to executives and officials at the World Economic Forum here.
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Asia's fastest-growing economies continue to mesmerize a Western capitalist class seeking to adapt to a changing economic world order. But concerns that the Kremlin may be maneuvering to consolidate political and economic power, in part by appearing to renationalize its natural resource assets, is fueling a wariness among investors who increasingly see Asia as a more stable investment destination.
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"Russia is in competition with other markets," said Margery Kraus, chief executive officer of APCO Worldwide, a Washington-based public relations company that has a dozen multinational clients in Russia. "Companies have to choose where to put their money: Do they put it into China, India or Russia?"
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Choosing Russia will become more difficult, she said, as Asia widens its net of global trade and business relations. Perhaps more crucial is the perception among foreign investors that Russia is at a pivotal point following President Vladmir Putin's convoluted renationalization of Yukos, the country's largest oil company.
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According to Grigori Yavlinsky, leader of the free-market Yabloko Party, the next decade is Russia's "last chance" to rehabilitate itself on the international scene and not miss its chance at first-world development for good.
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"The speed of development in places like China is so high that Russia risks losing its competitive advantage," he said. "If Russia doesn't overcome this confidence crisis, then it will not be among the partners of the West but among its satellites."
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Russia's fall from grace was sparked by a string of events that have damped western confidence in a stable Russian democracy at a time when China is the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment and high-tech companies are lining up to outsource business to India.
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The Yukos affair has raised fears among investors about unpredictable future meddling by the government in the private sector. Those fears have been compounded by Putin's aggressive politicking in Ukraine's presidential elections last year and laws that curbed democracy at home.
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While China is very clearly no democracy, investors there feel that the business environment is more predictable.
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In terms of politics, Russia has "moved very much in the wrong direction," said George Soros, the financier. "There are many investors who are attracted to a strong repressive government. But this is a weak repressive government, especially because the rule of law does not prevail and corruption is really rampant."
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At Vimpelcom, the Russian telecommunications company that, like Yukos, was targeted by the Kremlin for back tax payments late last year, the chief executive officer, Alexander Izosimov, said he was worried about the unpredictability of doing business in Russia. "You can't have surprises sprung on you as a company. You need consistency," he said.
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Meanwhile, high oil prices have slowed restructuring in the financial and energy sectors. As a result, capital flight has increased, with some $7 billion leaving the country last year.
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The Moscow stock market was up 8.3 percent last year, but given that the oil industry accounts for 75 percent of its market capitalization and oil prices went up by 30 percent, it was at least 50 percent undervalued, said William Browder, chief executive of Hermitage Capital.
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Other energy-based economies saw their stock markets surge between 30 and 85 percent last year, he said. At the same time the risk premium in bond markets shot up.
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On the face of it, all indicators point to a robust economy: Russia enjoys a capital account surplus and a budget surplus, and its reserves are larger than its debts. The pace of economic growth has averaged a respectable 6 percent in recent years.
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But the growth has been fueled practically from a single source - high oil prices. Economists warn that Russia has grown increasingly dependent on exporting its natural resources. The country holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and the eighth-largest oil reserves.
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"Russia is a petro-state with all the characteristics of a petro-state," said Lilia Shevtsova, senior associate of the Carnegie Moscow Center, citing vulnerability to commodity prices and state intervention in business.
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Its resources mean Russia will always be courted for investment in the energy sector, especially in a world where economies increasingly compete for energy, she said. But to embark on a sustainable path to western standards, other sectors need to be developed, economists said.
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"At the moment there is no basis for long-term growth," said Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. "It's going to boomerang because commodity prices won't stay high forever."
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Diversification is where foreign involvement is crucial, he said. Building up the ailing industrial and consumer sectors will require foreign expertise and best practices - in short capitalist professionalism that at present is conspicuously scarce in Russia.
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In an attempt to win back the trust of investors, Alexander Zhukov, deputy prime minister of Russia, addressed a session in Davos on Friday, pledging that there was no reason for any concern.
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"There is no question that Russia will remain a democracy and will endeavor to the maximum extent possible to be integrated in the world economy," he said, stressing also that further re nationalizations were not on the government's agenda.
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Still, in a measure of how Russia has become overshadowed by China and other Asian markets, only two workshops out of some 250 during the World Economic Forum focused on Russia.
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More centered on China, and many that focused on other subjects mentioned China.
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See more of the world that matters - click here for home delivery of the International Herald Tribune.
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n's aggressive politicking in Ukraine's presidential elections last year and laws that curbed democracy at home.
.
While China is very clearly no democracy, investors there feel that the business environment is more predictable.
.
In terms of politics, Russia has "moved very much in the wrong direction," said George Soros, the financier. "There are many investors who are attracted to a strong repressive government. But this is a weak repressive government, especially because the rule of law does not prevail and corruption is really rampant."
.
At Vimpelcom, the Russian telecommunications company that, like Yukos, was targeted by the Kremlin for back tax payments late last year, the chief executive officer, Alexander Izosimov, said he was worried about the unpredictability of doing business in Russia. "You can't have surprises sprung on you as a company. You need consistency," he said.
.
Meanwhile, high oil prices have slowed restructuring in the financial and energy sectors. As a result, capital flight has increased, with some $7 billion leaving the country last year.
.
The Moscow stock market was up 8.3 percent last year, but given that the oil industry accounts for 75 percent of its market capitalization and oil prices went up by 30 percent, it was at least 50 percent undervalued, said William Browder, chief executive of Hermitage Capital.
.
Other energy-based economies saw their stock markets surge between 30 and 85 percent last year, he said. At the same time the risk premium in bond markets shot up.
.
On the face of it, all indicators point to a robust economy: Russia enjoys a capital account surplus and a budget surplus, and its reserves are larger than its debts. The pace of economic growth has averaged a respectable 6 percent in recent years.
.
But the growth has been fueled practically from a single source - high oil prices. Economists warn that Russia has grown increasingly dependent on exporting its natural resources. The country holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and the eighth-largest oil reserves.
.
"Russia is a petro-state with all the characteristics of a petro-state," said Lilia Shevtsova, senior associate of the Carnegie Moscow Center, citing vulnerability to commodity prices and state intervention in business.
.
Its resources mean Russia will always be courted for investment in the energy sector, especially in a world where economies increasingly compete for energy, she said. But to embark on a sustainable path to western standards, other sectors need to be developed, economists said.
.
"At the moment there is no basis for long-term growth," said Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. "It's going to boomerang because commodity prices won't stay high forever."
.
Diversification is where foreign involvement is crucial, he said. Building up the ailing industrial and consumer sectors will require foreign expertise and best practices - in short capitalist professionalism that at present is conspicuously scarce in Russia.
.
In an attempt to win back the trust of investors, Alexander Zhukov, deputy prime minister of Russia, addressed a session in Davos on Friday, pledging that there was no reason for any concern.
.
"There is no question that Russia will remain a democracy and will endeavor to the maximum extent possible to be integrated in the world economy," he said, stressing also that further re nationalizations were not on the government's agenda.
.
Still, in a measure of how Russia has become overshadowed by China and other Asian markets, only two workshops out of some 250 during the World Economic Forum focused on Russia.
.
More centered on China, and many that focused on other subjects mentioned China.
.
.
See more of the world that matters - click here for home delivery of the International Herald Tribune.
.
< < Back to Start of Article
Это сообщение редактировалось 08.02.2005 в 00:18