И снова о китайских АВ

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RU Andrew_han #04.07.2006 10:07
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Andrew_han

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Posted 07/03/06 Defensenews
Big Ships for Beijing?
Analysts Can’t Agree Whether China Wants or Needs Carriers

By WENDELL MINNICK, TAIPEI


Will China operate planes from an aircraft carrier in the next decade?
It’s a two-part question that starts with this one: Does Beijing want to do so?
Western observers who believe the answer is yes point to China’s rising desire to project force into sea lanes, especially to protect the flow of oil from the Arabian Gulf through the Strait of Malacca.
But other analysts disagree.
“Whilst China was interested in building a carrier, it had shelved the plan for a variety of reasons,” said Ian Storey, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu.
Storey said Beijing has developed other ways to address the strategic vulnerability of relying on Middle East oil.
“If China is interested in protecting its ships and SLOCs [sea lanes of communication], then it can do that without carriers — frigates, destroyers and subs,” he said.
“However, one or two carrier battle groups would be useful in this regard, and I suspect that that is China’s long-term goal. Put it this way — China’s Malacca dilemma is an added incentive for the PLAN [People’s Liberation Army Navy] to acquire aircraft carrier capability, and I am sure senior Chinese admirals are making that argument these days.”
U.S. academic and government analysts are split. Some predict a Chinese aircraft carrier by 2015; others say it will not happen until after 2020, according to the Pentagon’s recent report to Congress, “Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006.”
Bernard Cole, a China Navy specialist at the National War College in Washington, said China may first deploy 12,000-ton ships carrying about a dozen aircraft within a decade.
“The next step, within 15 years, would be carriers of approximately 30,000 to 40,000 tons, similar in size to the U.S. LHA/LHD class,” Cole said. “These probably would not be equipped with catapults/arresting gear but would still be very capable ships.”
Chinese media reports indicate that Beijing is divided on the topic.
In 2002, a report from China’s official People’s Daily newspaper expressed reservations.
“Is China capable of manufacturing a sophisticated system of aircraft carrier not considering political and financial reasons?” the piece asked. “Experts are divided over discussions regarding technological capability. Some give positive answers, saying that although lacking real experience on aircraft carriers, China has long been capable of building over 100,000-ton civil vessels as well as military ships on a medium and small scale.”
More recently, a May 1 report in the Hong Kong-based Ching Pao reported that Chinese military authorities were unsure of the effectiveness of an aircraft carrier in future war scenarios.
“The Chinese high echelon has accepted the opinion on building aircraft carriers; however, we should not place unrealistically high expectations on the construction of building aircraft carriers,” the article said.
Pentagon adviser Michael Pillsbury said Chinese officials had traveled to Brazil, Britain, France and Italy in the past decade to study aircraft carriers.
“A public debate in China regarding the usefulness of aircraft carriers has been going on for a decade,” Pillsbury said.
A Working Carrier
The second part of the question is: How would China acquire a carrier? Buy a foreign ship? Refurbish the antiquated Soviet-built Varyag, purchased from the Ukraine in 1998? Or build a new one?
The first EU arms embargo makes it unlikely that China could buy one from Europe, and a U.S.-built ship is out of the question.
China certainly owns plenty of old foreign carriers, but none appear to be good candidates for refurbishing. Chinese purchases of old carriers include:
• 1985: China purchased the 17,000-ton Australian aircraft carrier HMAS Melbourne to study its catapults, according to media reports.
• 1998: The Russian-built Minsk was purchased by a Chinese company for scrap iron and turned into a tourist venture at Dapeng Bay, Guangdong Province.
• 2000: The Tianma Shipbuilding Co. bought the Russian-built Kiev, the former flagship of the Russian North Fleet, as a tourism venture, and it is now located at the Beiyang Recreation Harbor at Tianjin.
• 2002: Hong Kong-based Jiexin Shipping Co. bought the 50-year-old Minas Gerais from Brazil for $2 million and outfitted it with shops and a museum.
But no purchase has received more media attention and public fascination than the 67,500-ton Russian carrier Varyag, bought in 1998. Long dogged by uncertainty and mishap, the ship was begun in 1985, but with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, ownership was transferred to the Ukraine, which halted construction in 1992 after completing 70 percent of the ship.
It is clear Chinese naval engineers and designers have seriously studied the Varyag, reported the recent DoD report on China. Of all the aircraft carriers purchased by China, the Varyag is the only one under guard by the PLAN.
“By studying the Varyag and consulting extensively with its designers, China can pocket that investment and leapfrog into a next-generation design,” said Richard Fisher, vice president of the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center.
Aircraft and Tactics
The People’s Daily has also noted that China has no carrier-based aircraft, though it does operate helicopters adaptable to many different naval warfare missions.
Options include buying the carrier-based Russian Su-33 (Su-27K) or modifying the Chengdu J-10 multirole fighter, said Fisher.
“Many indicators also point toward an ongoing effort at Chengdu to develop a carrier-capable version of the J-10, most likely based on the advanced version of this fighter that will feature a thrust-vectored engine,” Fisher said.
He also said China was likely developing a family of twin-turboprop carrier aircraft, similar to the old U.S. S-1/E-1 Tracker/Tracer family, for anti-submarine missions and carrier resupply.
There are signs China is preparing to develop the tactical skills necessary for an aircraft carrier.
China’s Central Military Commission is sending the PLAN North Sea Fleet’s helicopter training ship, the 82 Shichang Hao, to the South Sea Fleet so that missile destroyers and frigates can practice with an aviation-oriented ship, according to a June 4 report in the Chinese-language Hong Kong-based newspaper Ta Kung Pao.
“The formation will train on a Chinese framework on maritime carrier comprehensive operation before China’s new aircraft carrier enters active service,” the paper reported.
Дружище, когда вы принимаете чью-то помощь, довольствуйтесь тем, что вам дают, а не тем, что вы хотели бы взять. У меня, как и у всех, возможности ограниченные, но с вашей стороны попрекать меня их ограниченностью - черная неблагодарность. Роберт Шекли, "Обмен разумов"  
RU Andrew_han #04.07.2006 10:41
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Andrew_han

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Из Доклада Пентагона
ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS
Military Power of the People’s Republic of China
2006:


Status of Aircraft Carrier Developments
China first began to discuss developing an indigenous aircraft carrier in the late 1970s. In 1985, China purchased the Australian carrier the HMAS Melbourne. Although the hull was scrapped, Chinese technicians studied the ship and built a replica of its fl ight deck for pilot training. With the demise of the Soviet Union, China purchased two former Soviet carriers – the Minsk in 1998 and the Kiev in 2000. Neither carrier was made operational; instead they were used as fl oating military theme parks. Nevertheless, both provided design information to PLA Navy engineers.

Attracting the most attention is China’s 1998 purchase of the ex-Varyag, a Kuznetsov-class Soviet carrier only 70 percent complete at the time of the Soviet Union’s collapse. Recent deck refurbishment, electrical work, fresh hull paint with PLA Navy markings, and expressed interest in Russia’s Su-33 fighter have re-kindled debate on a Chinese carrier fl eet. Though the PLA’s ultimate intentions remain unclear, a number of possibilities exist for the Varyag:

First operational aircraft carrier. Photos showing maintenance and repair on the hull and deck of the ship suggest this could be an option.

A training platform. Given the difficulty and expense in overhauling the ex-Varyag, it is possible, but doubtful, the PLA would invest the resources to develop it only for training purposes.

A transitional platform. The Varyag could act as a stand-in until an indigenous carrier can be completed, allowing the PLA Navy to use it as a model and gain experience.

Theme park. The Varyag could be exploited for its design and then scrapped for parts, turned into a floating theme park, or used for its originally stated purchase purpose – a casino.
Regardless of Beijing’s final objective for the ex-Varyag, it is facilitating PLA Navy engineers’ comprehensive study of the platform’s structural design, which could eventually assist China in creating its own carrier program. Some analysts in and out government predict that China could have an operational carrier by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), but others assess the earliest China could deploy an operational aircraft carrier is 2020 or beyond
Дружище, когда вы принимаете чью-то помощь, довольствуйтесь тем, что вам дают, а не тем, что вы хотели бы взять. У меня, как и у всех, возможности ограниченные, но с вашей стороны попрекать меня их ограниченностью - черная неблагодарность. Роберт Шекли, "Обмен разумов"  
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paralay

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http://www.varyagworld.com/
"Ничто так не обманчиво, как слишком очевидные факты" Артур Конан Дойл  
RU Фагот #04.07.2006 23:58
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RU Andrew_han #05.07.2006 11:14
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Andrew_han

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А о чём речь? :)
 


Автор задется вопросом: будут ли АВ у КНР в следуюбщем десятилетии. Но вопрос состоит из 2 аспектов:
1. Хочет ли КНР иметь АВ. Дальше идут мнения аналитиков - от того, чтобы защищать торговые пути АВ не нужны, хватит ЭМ и ФР, до того, что КНР нужны две АУГ и это долгосрочная цель КНР. Это случится либо к 2015, либо к 2020 г. Один мужик считает, что КРР построит малый АВ в 12 тыс. тонн с десятком ЛА в течение 10 лет. Следующий шаг строительство АВ в 30-40 тыс. тонн класса американских LHA/LHD, но возможно будут без катапульт.

Кроме того, одна гонк-конгская газетенка ссылается на мнение высокопоставленных китайских военных, которые говорят о том, что не стоит переоценивать роль АВ в будущих конфликтах, но при этом принимают саму идею строительства АВ.

Далее речь про опыт, который они получили покупая списанные АВ. Про Варяг сказано, что его безусловно изучили инженеры и его изучение позволит китайцам совершить резкий скачок к АВ следующего поколения. Кроме того, отмечается что в КНР нет АВ-самолета, в качестве варианта рассматривается Су-33 и морской вариант J-10

Кроме того, для задач ПЛО и транспортных функций не исключается разработка китайцами винтового самолета по типу S-1/E-1 Tracker/Tracer. Также есть сведения о разработке морской версии J-10 которая представляет собой улучшенный J-10 с движком с изменяемым вектором тяги

Также есть следу того, что КНР развивается тактические навыки необходимые для АВ, в частности фрегаты тренируются с учебным вертолетоносцем.
Дружище, когда вы принимаете чью-то помощь, довольствуйтесь тем, что вам дают, а не тем, что вы хотели бы взять. У меня, как и у всех, возможности ограниченные, но с вашей стороны попрекать меня их ограниченностью - черная неблагодарность. Роберт Шекли, "Обмен разумов"  
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paralay

опытный

Постройка авианосцев типичный пример подготовки к прошлой войне.
"Ничто так не обманчиво, как слишком очевидные факты" Артур Конан Дойл  

Aaz

модератор
★★
Regardless of Beijing’s final objective for the ex-Varyag, it is facilitating PLA Navy engineers’ comprehensive study of the platform’s structural design, which could eventually assist China in creating its own carrier program.
 

Угу. Еще лучше им поможет хороший проект, выполненный российскими специалистами под грамотным руководством... :)
"Тот, кто надевает шоры, должен помнить, что в комплект еще входят узда и кнут" (Станислав Ежи Лец)  
LT Bredonosec #06.07.2006 00:03
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Bredonosec

аксакал
★★★☆

Постройка авианосцев типичный пример подготовки к прошлой войне.
 
- А что в них плохого? В современных смотрятся весьма неплохо.. Хотя бы как "возможность оперативно подвести к границам любой страны ударную военно-воздушную группировку, более мощную, чем ввс 95% стран мира"(С)изречение какого-то летуна с палубы по дискавери..
 
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paralay

опытный

Вот-вот, к берегам заведомо слабой страны…
А сильных, правильнее – опасных, всего две: Россия и Китай. Эти могут АУГу рога пообломать.
"Ничто так не обманчиво, как слишком очевидные факты" Артур Конан Дойл  

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