Борьба за остров Змеиный

Ukraine war latest: Russia withdraws troops from Snake Island - BBC News

Ukraine claims a major victory after Moscow confirms forces are leaving the strategic island, fought over since the start of the war. //  www.bbc.com

 

Summary

Russia says its forces have relinquished control of Snake Island in the north-western Black Sea, which has been battled over since the start of the war
Moscow says its withdrawal is a "goodwill gesture" to facilitate grain exports - but Ukraine celebrates a victory
UK PM Boris Johnson says it is evidence of Ukrainian forces' "amazing ability" to fight back
Nato's chief says members have agreed a significant increase in funding for the alliance, on the second day of its Madrid summit
Jens Stoltenberg says Sweden and Finland will sign the protocol to join Nato on Tuesday, though member states will then need to ratify it
Ukraine's military has welcomed fresh Nato pledges but officials say shells are continuing to rain down in eastern Ukraine
Vladimir Putin meanwhile accuses Nato of having imperial ambitions

 

Snake Island: Why Russia couldn't hold on to strategic Black Sea outcrop

Russia claims it is a gesture of goodwill, but the withdrawal from a Black Sea rock is a big defeat. //  www.bbc.com

 

After more than four months of repeated Ukrainian bombardment, Russian forces have abandoned Snake Island, or Zmiinyi Island as it is known in Ukraine.

Russia says it has withdrawn its garrison as a "gesture of goodwill" to prove it was not obstructing grain exports, but Ukraine dismissed that claim, as Moscow continued to shell its grain stores.

Difficult to defend

The island is exposed to attacks from all directions from air and sea, and the small garrison tasked with defending it - first Ukrainians and later Russians - have been described as "sitting ducks" by military experts

 

Russia already controls a large stretch of Ukraine's Black Sea coast, plus the Crimean Peninsula and the entire Sea of Azov. Holding Snake Island completed an effective blockade of Odesa, and meant exports of the vast majority of Ukrainian grain were impossible.

It also meant the Black Sea coast became vulnerable to attack too, and military experts in Kyiv voiced fears that Russia could install long-range air defences, such as an S-400 air missile system.

A look at the map also shows that Russian control of the island represented a threat to Nato member Romania - both its key port of Constanta and traffic in the mouth of the River Danube.

It is not just strategically significant - this area is also rich in reserves of petroleum and gas.

Moscow's version of the story
Analysis box by Steve Rosenberg, Russia editor

We've grown accustomed to this: Russia putting out a version of events that is wildly different from that presented by Ukraine or by Western governments.

Moscow wants us to believe that there was no Russian retreat from Snake Island.

The statement issued by the Russian Defence Ministry claims that Russian troops there had simply completed "assigned tasks" and left. It also called the departure "a goodwill gesture", to show that Russia wasn't hampering food exports from Ukraine.

Considering the strategic importance of Snake Island, which has been fought over for months, and considering, too, the lack of "goodwill gestures" by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine since the invasion, this version of events will convince few outside Russia.

Then again, this may be directed more at a domestic audience. The Kremlin wants the Russian public to believe that:

In this conflict, the Russians are the good guys
The Kremlin's so-called "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine is going according to plan.

A potential game-changer

This is not just a symbolic victory for Ukraine, it is a strategic success. For Russia this is both a setback and an embarrassing defeat.

But it will not substantially change the course of the war. Russia's focus is on conquering the whole of the eastern Donbas and holding on to other areas of the south that it seized at the start of the war.

Snake Island may be in a highly strategic part of the Black Sea and in an ideal spot for installing sophisticated missile systems, but ultimately it is still a very small rock.

The key question is whether, by forcing the Russians out, the Ukrainians could consider resuming grain exports to reboot their war-ravaged economy. Without an effective navy, there is little chance of that yet, and Russian warships maintain their dominance over the Black Sea.

"Practically, you need 10 things to happen before you can safely export grain and this is only one," says Andrew Wilson, professor of Ukrainian studies at University College London.

Ukraine has rejected Russian offers to escort grain convoys from Odessa as they would require removing mines from outside the port.

Turkey is actively involved in trying to negotiate an agreement with both Russia and Ukraine but the prospect of that happening appear remote at this stage.

The next few weeks are seen as pivotal to Ukraine's exports - because the next harvest begins in July.